Mtwara – The Mtwara fish market is as loud as ever, filled with the familiar ring of voices and the heat of the midday sun, but the usual piles of kingfish and tuna are missing from the wooden stalls. In this coastal hub, the vibrant energy of the trade masks a deepening crisis: the fish are disappearing, and the women who drive this economy are the ones left to figure out how to fill the gap.
For generations, the people of Mtwara have relied on fishing along the vast Indian Ocean as their economic lifeblood, but the ocean is no longer providing what it used to.
When Nijuze visited Mtwara on December 10, 2025, the frustration among residents was clear. Asha Nasoro, who has spent years selling the day’s catch, explained that the ocean simply isn’t providing what it used to. “The availability of fish for me is truly difficult; it has been extremely hard compared to past years,” she said. Ms Asha noted that since the start of 2025, “fish have not been available in abundance.”
This scarcity turns the daily market hustle into a high-stakes gamble. Salma Juma, another vendor navigating the shortage, says the price spikes are eating away at her family’s security. “It affects us because first, money is not available like before,” Ms Salma explained. “Right now, the profit has become smaller than before.”
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A warming ocean and the call for readiness
The reason the baskets are light is found beneath the surface of the Indian Ocean. Tanzania’s National Climate Change Response Strategy (2021-2026) points to rising sea temperatures that are forcing fish to migrate into deeper, cooler waters, far beyond the reach of local boats. At the same time, coral bleaching and heavy silt from inland rains are destroying the reefs where fish once thrived.
Fishermen like Mzee Ali Hassan are already changing how they work to stay safe from the resulting extreme weather. “TMA gives us ‘attention’ early,” he said, referring to the Tanzania Meteorological Authority. “If they know that in the morning the wind will be 50 kilometers per hour, they give us attention that we should not go to sea today… and we do not dispute that.”
This need for constant vigilance was echoed by Prime Minister Mwigulu Nchemba in a national address on December 15, 2025. He urged all Tanzanians to “build a habit of closely following weather forecast reports and observing the advice and instructions provided.”
Reflecting on the gravity of ignoring these warnings, he reminded the country of past tragedies like the “mudslides in Manyara” or floods in valleys where people had built homes. “This time we are warned about the scarcity of rain, that it will not be sufficient and its distribution will be unsatisfactory,” he added, warning that this could hit the country’s harvests.
The household burden
The economic ripple effect of fewer fish lands hardest on women, who the national strategy identifies as the primary managers of household needs. When the fish income dries up, it is the women who must stretch every shilling to cover food and school fees.
Prime Minister Nchemba addressed this domestic pressure directly, urging families to be proactive with their resources. “Despite there being no current threat of food shortages, as a country we have a surplus reserve… we have enough food storage,” the Prime Minister reassured.
On another note, Dr. Nchemba was firm about the need for careful management at home: “It is important that citizens continue to observe proper use of food, including setting aside reserves and avoiding improper usage… it is good that we start storing the food reserve that we have.”
For women in Mtwara, this advice is a daily reality. As they deal with the “empty net” days, they are the ones tasked with the “proper use of food” to ensure their children don’t go hungry when the boats stay docked.
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Bridging the adaptation gap
Tanzania has a plan to fix this. The government’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) outlines a multi-billion-dollar path to a “Blue Economy,” focusing on things like aquaculture, fish farming, and mangrove restoration to bring life back to the coast.
These efforts are supported by international goals like the “Belém gender action plan” from the 30th Conference of Parties kicked off from November 10 to 21 this year in Brazil, which calls for the “full, meaningful, and equal participation” of women in all climate decisions.
The problem, however, is the bill. The Adaptation Gap Report 2025, highlights a massive global shortage of climate funding. Developing countries need hundreds of billions of dollars a year to adapt to these changes, but the money isn’t flowing fast enough.
Until that funding gap is closed, the women of Mtwara will continue to face a warming ocean with little more than their own resilience. As Asha Nasoro and Salma Juma watch the tides, they aren’t just looking for fish—they are looking for a future that is as stable as the markets used to be.
